WEEK ELEVEN REWIND: TCU DROPS TEXAS, TOP FIVE TEAMS WIN BIG!

Week eleven was full of intrigue, but in the end, the Top Five teams all won. TCU who was a seven-point underdog to Texas showed off an impressive defense in their 17-10 win over the Longhorns. The Horned Frogs shut down Heisman-hopeful tailback Bijan Robinson to just 29 yards rushing. Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State all won easily, maintaining their stranglehold at the top of the poll. We have two weeks left of the regular season and all kinds of possibilities as races for conference championships will be determined. Below I have the analysis of each conference race, with predictions and Bowl implications.

AAC

Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Tulane are locked in a three-way battle all sitting at (5-1). The Knights are in the driver’s seat, as they have victories over both Tulane and Cincinnati. Tulane has two tough opponents left on the schedule. They host SMU and close at Cincinnati. The Bearcats will travel to Temple and close against the Green Wave. I believe the Knights will host the AAC title game, and eventually represent the Group of Five on New Year’s Day.

BOWL ELIGIBLE: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Tulane, East Carolina, SMU, and Houston.

IN THE HUNT: Memphis

ACC

The ACC Championship game is now set. Clemson will meet North Carolina in Charlotte. Both teams clinched with victories over the weekend.

BOWL ELIGIBLE: Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and Louisville.

IN THE HUNT: Miami, and Georgia Tech

BIG 10

The BIG 10 East might be the best division of football this season. Michigan and Ohio State both (10-0) are set to meet in a monster showdown next week. The winner will move directly to the Championship game in Indianapolis. The big question is who will they play? Purdue, Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois are all (4-3). Wisconsin at (3-4) has an outside shot. I like Purdue to come out of the West. The Boilermakers have the easier schedule with Northwestern at home and a roadie at Indiana. They also own tiebreakers with both Minnesota and Illinois.

BOWL ELIGIBLE: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Maryland, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa.

IN THE HUNT: Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Rutgers.

BIG 12

TCU has punched a ticket to the BIG 12 Championship game. Their opponent has yet to be determined. The battle for that second spot should be fun to watch. Kansas State has the inside track with just two losses, but Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma State are still in the mix. I like the Wildcats to punch that second ticket. The Wildcats close with a road game against West Virginia, and a home tilt with rival Kansas. They should be favored in both games. Keep an eye on the Baylor Bears, wins over Texas and TCU could vault them over Kansas State, should the Wildcats falter. The BIG 12 Championship game will be played in Dallas.

BOWL ELIGIBLE: TCU, Texas, Baylor, Kansas, and Kansas State.

IN THE HUNT: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Iowa State.

CONFERENCE USA

The CUSA Championship game will be held at the No.1 seed home field. That will be in San Antonio, where the Roadrunners have clinched the top seed. Four teams remain in the hunt to claim the second seed. North Texas and Western Kentucky both sit at (5-2). Florida Atlantic (4-2) and Rice (3-3) will need plenty of help. I like North Texas to make their way to San Antonio. The Mean Green own the tiebreaker over the Hilltoppers, virtue of their big win over the Toppers 40-13.

BOWL ELIGIBLE: UTSA, Western Kentucky, and North Texas.

IN THE HUNT: Florida Atlantic, Rice, UAB, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, and Florida International.

MID-AMERICAN

The MAC West has been clinched by the Toledo Rockets at (5-1) The East division is a three-team race between Ohio (5-1) and Buffalo and Bowling Green both at (4-2). The Bobcats are my pick to meet Toledo in Detroit. They close the season with a road game at Ball State and then host Bowling Green. The Bobcats own a tiebreaker versus Buffalo.

BOWL ELIGIBLE: Ohio, Toledo, and Eastern Michigan.

IN THE HUNT: Buffalo, Bowling Green, Kent State, Miami Ohio, Ball State, and Central Michigan.

MOUNTAIN WEST

The Mountain West will be fun to watch these last two weeks. The Mountain division is a toss-up between Boise State and Wyoming. Ironically these two will face off in Boise on Saturday. I like Boise to win that game, which will send the Broncos to the title game. The West is a three-team race. Fresno State has played remarkable football despite losing quarterback Jake Haener to injury. The Bulldogs lead the West with a (5-1) mark. San Diego State and San Jose State are a game behind at (4-2). The return of Haener gives the Bulldogs the edge. They close the season at Nevada, and at home against Wyoming.

BOWL ELIGIBLE: Boise State, Fresno State, Wyoming, Air Force, San Diego State, and San Jose State.

IN THE HUNT: UNLV, and Utah State.

PAC-12

The PAC-12 will be the most heated race as we go down the stretch. This week will be loaded with big matchups, as the battle of Los Angeles will take place with USC (7-1) squaring off with UCLA (5-2). A loss by the Trojans will eliminate them from the CFP Playoff. Utah (6-1) will travel to Oregon (6-1) to face the Ducks. These four teams are squarely in the mix for the PAC-12 Championship game. Let’s not forget about the Washington Huskies, who have put themselves into the title chase with their big upset of Oregon on Saturday. I will go out on a limb and pick UCLA to meet Oregon in a rematch in Las Vegas.

BOWL ELIGIBLE: Oregon, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State, and Oregon State.

IN THE HUNT: Arizona

SEC

It’s official, LSU will meet Georgia in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. Tennessee and Alabama are on the outside looking in. The Volunteers should win their remaining two games at South Carolina and Vanderbilt and finish (11-1). If they do, I believe they will be one of the four playoff teams. LSU still has an outside shot to make the playoffs, but they will need to win out and beat Georgia, and then hope for some chaos. There has not been a two-loss team making the playoffs since the new format was introduced.

BOWL ELIGIBLE: Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Florida.

IN THE HUNT: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Missouri, and Auburn.

SUN BELT

Coastal Carolina has clinched a spot in the Sun Belt Championship game. The Chanticleers are (6-1) in the east and have a one-game lead over James Madison who can’t participate in their first year in FBS play. Ironically the Dukes will host Coastal in the final game of the regular season. The West division will go down to the final week of the season. Both Troy and South Alabama are deadlocked at (5-1). The Trojans have a favorable schedule for the final two weeks, hosting UL Monroe and closing the season at Arkansas State. Those two squads are a combined (7-13). The Jaguars travel to Southern Miss, then host Old Dominion a combined (8-12). Troy holds the tiebreaker over the Jaguars, by virtue of a 10-6 win back in October. I think South Alabama is the better team, but Troy has the easier route down the stretch.

BOWL ELIGIBLE: Coastal Carolina, South Alabama, Troy, and Marshall.

IN THE HUNT: Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Southern Miss, and Louisianna.

INDEPENDENTS:

BOWL ELIGIBLE: Liberty, UCONN, and Notre Dame

IN THE HUNT: BYU and New Mexico State.