Updated bowl projections from across the web

Every Monday we publish bowl projections from several college football experts and offer a little analysis of the expert projections. We’ll also provide a bowl projection that may seem crazy at first, but we’ll provide the rationale behind it.

BLACK SATURDAY – It’s not two days after Thanksgiving, it is this Saturday, when there are more than 10 games that will have a huge impact on the college postseason.  Later this week, we’ll go through each game and the potential stakes. You may be surprised by some of the teams that are still in the hunt for a New Year’s Six bowl game appearance.  There are also 13 teams playing that have six losses, and will not be bowl eligible if they lose Saturday, which leads us to our next point.

JUST CAN GET ENOUGH – Several weeks ago, we wrote about the fact that there will likely not be enough bowl eligible teams to fill all the bowl slots. There are still 89 teams with a chance at becoming bowl eligible, 13 of those teams must win out to do so.  Some of those teams play in the next few weeks, and several stars have to align to fill all of the slots.  It’s possible, but we believe that a few teams with 5-7 records will be qualified to appear in bowl games.  Remember that the NCAA has several ways to allow teams to qualify for a bowl game.  Ultimately, teams with 5-7 record would be allowed to appear, in order by APR scores.  We’ll have more on this possibility in the next few weeks if it looks like it will become a reality.  Onto the expert projections:

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl      

  • Jerry Palm – San Diego State vs. UCLA
  • Jason Kirk – Air Force vs. California
  • Mark Schlabach – Boise State vs. UCLA
  • Brett McMurphy – San Diego State vs. UCLA

New Orleans Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Southern Miss vs. UL-Lafayette
  • Jason Kirk – Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech
  • Mark Schlabach – Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Tech
  • Brett McMurphy – Southern Miss vs. South Alabama

New Mexico Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Rice vs. New Mexico
  • Jason Kirk – Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico
  • Mark Schlabach – Rice vs. New Mexico
  • Brett McMurphy – Rice vs. New Mexico

Camellia Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Toledo vs. Georgia Southern
  • Jason Kirk – Northern Illinois vs. Appalachian State
  • Mark Schlabach –Akron vs. South Alabama
  • Brett McMurphy –Ohio vs. Appalachian State

AutoNation Cure Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Nevada vs. Arkansas State
  • Jason Kirk – USF vs. South Alabama
  • Mark Schlabach – Buffalo vs. UL-Lafayette
  • Brett McMurphy – Tulsa vs. Georgia Southern

Miami Beach Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Cincinnati vs. Middle Tennessee
  • Jason Kirk – Cincinnati vs. Marshall
  • Mark Schlabach – Memphis vs. Western Kentucky
  • Brett McMurphy – USF vs. Western Kentucky

Boca Raton Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Temple vs. Ohio
  • Jason Kirk – East Carolina vs. Western Michigan
  • Mark Schlabach – Temple vs. Western Michigan
  • Brett McMurphy – Temple vs. Toledo

Idaho Potato Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Bowling Green vs. Colorado State
  • Jason Kirk – Toledo vs. Boise State
  • Mark Schlabach – Ohio vs. Utah State
  • Brett McMurphy – Central Michigan vs. Nevada

 GoDaddy.com Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Northern Illinois vs. Appalachian State
  • Jason Kirk – Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
  • Mark Schlabach – Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State
  • Brett McMurphy – Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State

Poinsettia Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Boise State vs. Arizona State
  • Jason Kirk – San Diego State vs. Akron
  • Mark Schlabach – San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois
  • Brett McMurphy – Boise State vs. Western Michigan

Hawai’i Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Tulsa vs. BYU
  • Jason Kirk – Washington vs. BYU
  • Mark Schlabach – Tulsa vs. BYU
  • Brett McMurphy – Arizona vs. BYU

Bahamas Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Marshall vs. Akron
  • Jason Kirk – Old Dominion vs. Ohio
  • Mark Schlabach – Toledo vs. Marshall
  • Brett McMurphy – Northern Illinois vs. Marshall

Foster Farms Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Penn State vs. Oregon
  • Jason Kirk – Nebraska vs. Oregon
  • Mark Schlabach – Indiana vs. Washington State
  • Brett McMurphy – Penn State vs. Utah

Independence Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Arizona vs. Duke
  • Jason Kirk – Buffalo vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
  • Mark Schlabach –Auburn vs. N.C. State
  • Brett McMurphy – Akron vs. Louisville

Pinstripe Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
  • Jason Kirk – Louisville vs. Indiana
  • Mark Schlabach – Pitt vs. Northwestern
  • Brett McMurphy – Florida State vs. Nebraska

Heart of Dallas Bowl

  • Jerry Palm –Washington vs. Western Kentucky
  • Jason Kirk – Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
  • Mark Schlabach – Appalachian State vs. Southern Miss
  • Brett McMurphy – Arizona State vs. Miami

Sun Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – N.C. State vs. Washington State
  • Jason Kirk – N.C. State vs. Washington State
  • Mark Schlabach – Louisville vs. USC
  • Brett McMurphy – Pittsburgh vs. Washington State

St. Petersburg Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – South Florida vs. Louisiana Tech
  • Jason Kirk – Temple vs. Southern Mississippi
  • Mark Schlabach – South Florida vs. Middle Tennessee
  • Brett McMurphy – Memphis vs. Louisiana Tech

Quick Lane Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Western Michigan vs. South Alabama
  • Jason Kirk – Duke vs. Minnesota
  • Mark Schlabach – Central Michigan vs. Illinois
  • Brett McMurphy – Duke vs. Minnesota

Military Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Miami (FL) vs. Navy
  • Jason Kirk – Miami (FL) vs. Memphis
  • Mark Schlabach – Miami (FL) vs. Navy
  • Brett McMurphy – Virginia Tech vs. Navy

Texas Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – West Virginia vs. Ole Miss
  • Jason Kirk – Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
  • Mark Schlabach – Texas Tech vs. LSU
  • Brett McMurphy – Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M

Arizona Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Old Dominion vs. Utah State
  • Jason Kirk – Arizona vs. Nevada
  • Mark Schlabach – Arizona State vs. Nevada
  • Brett McMurphy – Old Dominion vs. Colorado State

Armed Forces Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Central Michigan vs. Air Force
  • Jason Kirk – Arkansas State vs. Utah State
  • Mark Schlabach – California vs. Colorado State
  • Brett McMurphy – Indiana vs. Utah State

Russell Athletic Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – North Carolina vs. TCU
  • Jason Kirk – North Carolina vs. TCU
  • Mark Schlabach – North Carolina vs. West Virginia
  • Brett McMurphy – North Carolina vs. West Virginia

Birmingham Bowl

  • Jerry Palm –Memphis vs. Auburn
  • Jason Kirk – Houston vs. Auburn
  • Mark Schlabach – Cincinnati vs. Missouri
  • Brett McMurphy – Cincinnati vs. Auburn

Belk Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Virginia Tech vs. Texas A&M
  • Jason Kirk – Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State
  • Mark Schlabach – Duke vs. Tennessee
  • Brett McMurphy – N.C. State vs. Ole Miss

Music City Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Nebraska vs. Arkansas
  • Jason Kirk – Pitt vs. Georgia
  • Mark Schlabach – Virginia Tech vs. Texas  A&M
  • Brett McMurphy – Illinois vs. Tennessee

Holiday Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Wisconsin vs. Utah
  • Jason Kirk – Wisconsin vs. UCLA
  • Mark Schlabach – Wisconsin vs. Oregon
  • Brett McMurphy – Wisconsin vs. Oregon

Peach Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Michigan State vs. Florida State
  • Jason Kirk – Florida State vs. Navy
  • Mark Schlabach – Florida State vs. Houston
  • Brett McMurphy – Michigan State vs.  Notre Dame

Cotton Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Alabama vs. Clemson
  • Jason Kirk – Alabama vs. Notre Dame
  • Mark Schlabach – Alabama vs. Ohio State
  • Brett McMurphy – Alabama vs. Ohio State

Orange Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Ohio State vs. Oklahoma
  • Jason Kirk – Clemson vs. Ohio State
  • Mark Schlabach – Clemson vs. Oklahoma
  • Brett McMurphy – Clemson vs. Oklahoma State

Outback Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Northwestern vs. Georgia
  • Jason Kirk – Northwestern vs. Tennessee
  • Mark Schlabach – Michigan vs. Georgia
  • Brett McMurphy – Northwestern vs. Arkansas

Citrus Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Michigan vs. Florida
  • Jason Kirk – Michigan vs. LSU
  • Mark Schlabach – Michigan State vs. Ole Miss
  • Brett McMurphy – Michigan vs. LSU

Fiesta Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Notre Dame vs. Houston
  • Jason Kirk – Baylor vs. Michigan State
  • Mark Schlabach – Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State
  • Brett McMurphy – Baylor vs. Houston

Rose Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Iowa vs. Stanford
  • Jason Kirk – Iowa vs. Stanford
  • Mark Schlabach – Iowa vs. Stanford
  • Brett McMurphy – Iowa vs. Stanford

Sugar Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Oklahoma State vs. LSU
  • Jason Kirk – Oklahoma vs. Florida
  • Mark Schlabach – Baylor vs. Florida
  • Brett McMurphy – Oklahoma vs. Florida

TaxSlayer Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Louisville vs. Mississippi State
  • Jason Kirk – Penn State vs. Ole Miss
  • Mark Schlabach – Penn State vs. Arkansas
  • Brett McMurphy – Duke vs. Mississippi State

Liberty Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Kansas State vs. Tennessee
  • Jason Kirk – Kansas State vs. Arkansas
  • Mark Schlabach – Arizona State vs. Mississippi State
  • Brett McMurphy – Kansas State vs. Georgia

Alamo Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Baylor vs. USC
  • Jason Kirk – Oklahoma State vs. Utah
  • Mark Schlabach – TCU vs. Utah
  • Brett McMurphy TCU vs. USC

Cactus Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Texas Tech vs. California
  • Jason Kirk – West Virginia vs. USC
  • Mark Schlabach – Air Force vs. Arizona
  • Brett McMurphy – Air Force vs. California

ANALYSIS –

IOWA – All four of the experts have Iowa playing Stanford in the Rose Bowl.  To get there, Iowa would need to either be the Big Ten Champion and not appear in the College Football Playoff, or be the highest rated team in the Big Ten remaining in the Big Ten after the Big Ten Champion receives a bid for the College Football Playoff.  With either a Hawkeye win or a Wisconsin loss in the next two weeks, Iowa will represent the West Division in the Big Ten Championship Game.  As of today, their opponent would be the Ohio State Buckeyes who will be a heavy favorite in the game.  Remember, that that Big Ten Championship Game has been played four times and the underdog has won four times.  If Iowa is undefeated at the end of the regular season, they will play in the Rose Bowl or the College Football Playoff.  They still face Purdue and Nebraska and if Iowa loses one of those games, and doesn’t pull an upset in the B10 Championship, they won’t be heading to Pasadena.  The Hawkeyes will favored in both games.

FLORIDA (STATE) – Three of the experts have Florida appearing in the Sugar Bowl, and three of the experts have Florida State appearing in a New Year’s Six game.  It won’t happen that way — the only way that the two Florida schools play in selection committee games is if Florida wins the SEC and here’s why.  They play each other next weekend.  If Florida wins, they’ll likely be 11-1, with a date against what looks like Alabama looming.  Meanwhile, FSU will be 9-3 at best, which will not be enough to get an at-large bid from the selection committee.  Should Florida State knock off the Gators, they’ll be sitting at 10-2 and most likely in the Top 12, with a loss to top-ranked Clemson and a fluky loss at Georgia Tech.  In that scenario they’ll most likely play in Atlanta.  But the Gators would finish with a 10-2 record, needing to win the SEC Championship Game to play in New Year’s Six game, because 10-3 would probably not get an at-large bid, particularly if the 10-2 Seminoles who would have just defeated the Gators are the competition.

OUR CRAZY BOWL PROJECTION

Boise State vs. Arizona State in the Cactus Bowl – Boise is selected after the Big 12 Conference is unable to fill its slot in the game because either it has three teams appear in selection committee games, or it Kansas State is unable to win its last three games to become bowl eligible.  ASU gets to six wins, and gets to stay close to home, while Phoenix provides a great New Year’s trip for Boise State fans.  Note:  That doesn’t mean that we are projecting K-State to appear in this game if they bowl eligible, and they are likely to be favored in two or all three games.

PREVIOUS CRAZY PROJECTIONS

Oregon vs. Miami (FL) in the Sun Bowl  – A TV ratings bonanza

Washington State vs. BYU in the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl – Cougars come to Vegas looking to take back  some memories.

Nebraska vs. Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl – Frank Beamer deserves to be the toast off New York!

( A few weeks ago we omitted our projection after it appeared in two of the experts picks.  They’ve moved on, and what’s different about our picks is that we don’t. )

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