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Updated bowl projections – November 9, 2015

Bowl projections from around the web

college football bowl projectionsEvery Monday we publish bowl projections from experts across the web and offer a little analysis of the expert projections.   We’ll also provide a bowl projection that may seem crazy at first, but we’ll provide the rationale behind it.

DOES THE COMMITTEE KNOW ANYTHING? – When the initial rankings for the College Football Playoff were released last week, fans questioned how a one-loss Alabama team could be ranked among the top four teams, when there were still 11 undefeated teams  remaining.  Alabama defeated previously unbeaten LSU, and the selection committee again appears to know a lot of things.  After the weekend, only six teams remain undefeated, including Ohio State, Iowa, Clemson, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Houston.  Later this week, we’ll provide more details about what it will take for teams to make the College Football Playoff, or other bowl games.  (like us on facebook or twitter and you’ll get our updates)

CAN WE GET ENOUGH? – A  few weeks ago, we wrote about the fact that there will likely not be enough bowl eligible teams to fill all the bowl slots.   Upsets by Arkansas, Auburn and Nebraska this past weekend may go a long way towards filling available slots.  This week, none of the expert projections mention a lack of eligible teams.  Remember that the NCAA has several ways to allow teams to qualify for a bowl game.  Ultimately, teams with 5-7 record would be allowed to appear, in order by APR scores.  We’ll have more on this possibility in the next few weeks if it looks like it will become a reality.   Onto the expert projections:

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl      

  • Jerry Palm – BYU vs. California
  • Jason Kirk – Boise State vs. Arizona State
  • Mark Schlabach – BYU vs. California
  • Brett McMurphy – Boise State vs. Washington State

New Orleans Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Southern Miss vs. UL-Lafayette
  • Jason Kirk – Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech
  • Mark Schlabach – Appalachian State vs. Louisiana Tech
  • Brett McMurphy – Southern Miss vs. UL-Lafayette

New Mexico Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Rice vs. San Diego State
  • Jason Kirk – Middle Tennessee vs. New Mexico
  • Mark Schlabach – Rice vs. New Mexico
  • Brett McMurphy – Rice vs. New Mexico

Camellia Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Toledo vs. Georgia Southern
  • Jason Kirk – Bowling Green vs. Appalachian State
  • Mark Schlabach – Buffalo vs. South Alabama
  • Brett McMurphy –Central Michigan vs. Appalachian State

AutoNation Cure Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Buffalo vs. Arkansas State
  • Jason Kirk – East Carolina vs. South Alabama
  • Mark Schlabach – Akron vs. Georgia Southern
  • Brett McMurphy – Middle Tennessee vs. Georgia Southern

Miami Beach Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Cincinnati vs. Middle Tennessee
  • Jason Kirk – Cincinnati vs. Marshall
  • Mark Schlabach – Temple vs. Western Kentucky
  • Brett McMurphy – FIU vs. USF

Boca Raton Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Memphis vs. Western Michigan
  • Jason Kirk – Temple vs. Western Michigan
  • Mark Schlabach – Memphis vs. Toledo
  • Brett McMurphy – Temple vs. Toledo

Idaho Potato Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Bowling Green vs. Boise State
  • Jason Kirk – Toledo vs. Colorado State
  • Mark Schlabach – Northern Illinois vs. Colorado State
  • Brett McMurphy – Western Michigan vs. Utah State Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Northern Illinois vs. Appalachian State
  • Jason Kirk – Northern illinois vs. Georgia Southern
  • Mark Schlabach – Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State
  • Brett McMurphy – Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State

Poinsettia Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Colorado State vs. Washington
  • Jason Kirk – San Diego State vs. Central Michigan
  • Mark Schlabach – San Diego State vs. Central Michigan
  • Brett McMurphy – Air Force vs. Washington

Hawai’i Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Tulsa vs. Nevada
  • Jason Kirk – San Jose State vs. BYU
  • Mark Schlabach – Tulsa vs. Boise State
  • Brett McMurphy – Cincinnati vs. BYU

Bahamas Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Marshall vs. Akron
  • Jason Kirk – Old Dominion vs. Ohio
  • Mark Schlabach – Western Michigan vs. Marshall
  • Brett McMurphy – Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois

Foster Farms Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Illinois vs. Oregon
  • Jason Kirk – Nebraska vs. Oregon
  • Mark Schlabach – Illinois vs. Oregon
  • Brett McMurphy – Illinois vs. USC

Independence Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Kentucky vs. Virginia Tech
  • Jason Kirk – Akron vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
  • Mark Schlabach – UTEP vs. Virginia Tech
  • Brett McMurphy – Ohio vs. Louisville

Pinstripe Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Duke vs. Minnesota
  • Jason Kirk – Duke vs. Indiana
  • Mark Schlabach – Pitt vs. Northwestern
  • Brett McMurphy – Florida State vs. Wisconsin

Heart of Dallas Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Ohio vs. Western Kentucky
  • Jason Kirk – Washington vs. Western Kentucky
  • Mark Schlabach – Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Southern Miss
  • Brett McMurphy – Marshall vs. Colorado State

Sun Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Louisville vs. Washington State
  • Jason Kirk – Pittsburgh vs. California
  • Mark Schlabach – Louisville vs. Washington State
  • Brett McMurphy – Pittsburgh vs. Oregon

St. Petersburg Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – South Florida vs. Louisiana Tech
  • Jason Kirk – USF vs. Southern Mississippi
  • Mark Schlabach – South Florida vs. Middle Tennessee
  • Brett McMurphy – Western Kentucky vs. Memphis

Quick Lane Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Miami (FL) vs. Indiana
  • Jason Kirk – Miami (FL) vs. Minnesota
  • Mark Schlabach – N.C. State vs. Indiana
  • Brett McMurphy – Virginia Tech vs. Nebraska

Military Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Pitt vs. Navy
  • Jason Kirk – Louisville vs. Navy
  • Mark Schlabach – Miami (FL) vs. Navy
  • Brett McMurphy – Miami (FL) vs. Navy

Texas Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – West Virginia vs. Arkansas
  • Jason Kirk – Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
  • Mark Schlabach – West Virginia vs. Texas A&M
  • Brett McMurphy – Kansas State vs. Georgia

Arizona Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Old Dominion vs. Utah State
  • Jason Kirk – Rice vs. Utah State
  • Mark Schlabach – Arizona State vs. Nevada
  • Brett McMurphy – UTEP vs. San Jose State

Armed Forces Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Nebraska vs. Air Force
  • Jason Kirk – Washington State vs. Air Force
  • Mark Schlabach – Ohio vs. Air Force
  • Brett McMurphy – Indiana vs. Nevada

ussell Athletic Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Florida State vs. Oklahoma State
  • Jason Kirk – Florida State vs. Oklahoma State
  • Mark Schlabach – Florida State vs. TCU
  • Brett McMurphy – North Carolina vs. West Virginia

Birmingham Bowl

  • Jerry Palm –Temple vs. Auburn
  • Jason Kirk – Memphis vs. Mississippi State
  • Mark Schlabach – Cincinnati vs. Kentucky
  • Brett McMurphy – Tulsa vs. Kentucky

Belk Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – N.C. State vs. Texas A&M
  • Jason Kirk – North Carolina vs. Auburn
  • Mark Schlabach – North Carolina vs. Tennessee
  • Brett McMurphy – N.C. State vs. Arkansas

Music City Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Penn State vs. Ole Miss
  • Jason Kirk – N.C. State vs. Georgia
  • Mark Schlabach – Duke vs. Arkansas
  • Brett McMurphy – Penn State vs. Tennessee

Holiday Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Wisconsin vs. UCLA
  • Jason Kirk – Wisconsin vs. UCLA
  • Mark Schlabach – Wisconsin vs. UCLA
  • Brett McMurphy – Northwestern vs. UCLA

Peach Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Michigan State vs. Notre Dame
  • Jason Kirk – Ohio State vs. Houston
  • Mark Schlabach – Florida vs. Houston
  • Brett McMurphy – LSU vs.  Notre Dame

Cotton Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Alabama vs. Clemson
  • Jason Kirk – Alabama vs. Stanford
  • Mark Schlabach – Alabama vs. Ohio State
  • Brett McMurphy – Alabama vs. Ohio State

Orange Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Ohio State vs. Stanford
  • Jason Kirk – Clemson vs. Baylor
  • Mark Schlabach – Clemson vs. Baylor
  • Brett McMurphy – Clemson vs. Oklahoma State

Outback Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Northwestern vs. Georgia
  • Jason Kirk – Northwestern vs. Tennessee
  • Mark Schlabach – Michigan vs. Mississippi State
  • Brett McMurphy – Michigan vs. Ole Miss

Citrus Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Michigan vs. Florida
  • Jason Kirk – Michigan State vs. Florida
  • Mark Schlabach – Michigan State vs. Ole Miss
  • Brett McMurphy – Michigan State vs. Mississippi State

Fiesta Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Baylor vs. Houston
  • Jason Kirk – Notre Dame vs. Iowa
  • Mark Schlabach – Notre Dame vs. Utah
  • Brett McMurphy – Oklahoma vs. Houston

Rose Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Iowa vs. Utah
  • Jason Kirk – Michigan vs. USC
  • Mark Schlabach – Iowa vs. Stanford
  • Brett McMurphy – Iowa vs. Stanford

Sugar Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – TCU vs. LSU
  • Jason Kirk – Oklahoma vs. LSU
  • Mark Schlabach – Oklahoma vs. LSU
  • Brett McMurphy – Baylor vs. Florida

TaxSlayer Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – North Carolina vs. Mississippi State
  • Jason Kirk – Penn State vs. Ole Miss
  • Mark Schlabach – Penn State vs. Georgia
  • Brett McMurphy – Duke vs. Texas A&M

Liberty Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Kansas State vs. Tennessee
  • Jason Kirk – Kansas State vs. Arkansas
  • Mark Schlabach – Auburn vs. Texas Tech
  • Brett McMurphy – Auburn vs. Arizona

Alamo Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Oklahoma vs. USC
  • Jason Kirk – TCU vs. Utah
  • Mark Schlabach – Oklahoma State vs. USC
  • Brett McMurphy TCU vs. Utah

Cactus Bowl

  • Jerry Palm – Central Michigan vs. Arizona State
  • Jason Kirk – West Virginia vs. Arizona
  • Mark Schlabach – Utah State vs. Arizona
  • Brett McMurphy – San Diego State vs. California

 National Championship Game       January 11

Consensus picks among the four experts –

  • Navy in the  Military Bowl
  • UCLA in the Holiday Bowl
  • Alabama in the Cotton Bowl

I am surprised at this point in the season that there are only three teams that these four experts believe will go to these games.  There aren’t that many selections where even three of the experts predict the same team will go to a certain bowl game.  With no more than four games left in the season, (except for Navy), the experts seem to see the season playing out differently.

Our Crazy Bowl Projection – Nebraska vs. Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl – How does it happen?  Before Saturday’s game against Michigan State, Nebraska was sitting at 3-6, with two games remaining against undefeated team.  It appeared that the Huskers, pre-season favorites in the Big Ten West Division, were heading for a four-win season.  With a stunning upset of the Spartans, right now anything seems possible for the Cornhuskers.  To get to six wins, Nebraska will need to win at Iowa on Black Friday.  Iowa should be undefeated entering that game, with a chance to make history and finish undefeated with a 12-0 regular season record.  The Hawkeyes will likely have already clinched the division and an appearance in the Big Ten Championship.  I’m not calling for the upset, but it definitely is possible, but if it doesn’t happen, the Huskers may still qualify based on having a 5-7 record, a solid APR score, and the Big Ten not having enough bowl eligible teams.  A legendary program will take on a legendary coach — they’ll face Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer’s last game as head coach.

Oregon vs. Miami (FL) in the Sun Bowl  – A TV ratings bonanza

Washington State vs. BYU in the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl – Cougars come to Vegas looking to take back  some memories.  ( Last week we omitted our projection after it appeared in two of the experts picks.  They’ve moved on, and what’s different about our picks is that we don’t. )




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